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Here is what I can see about a megaphone, or broadening, topping pattern on the S&P. It’s not a classic by any means but that top line has yet to be broken and is one to watch.

If we do break above I will update.

If not, I’ll pencil in some targets soon.

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So silver has crept back up to the 200-day Moving Average and is obviously finding some overhead resistance there.

This is not much of a surprise given the very overbought nature of the market. See how how far above the overbought line the RMI is. So from current levels the upside is extremely limited until the market becomes less overbought.

The MACD has actually now crossed to the downside so we should be careful of a correction back from these overbought levels.

The Slow Stochastic is also coming very nicely off overbought so for all the above reasons it’s not unreasonable to expect Silver to come back further.

As to targets we can look at 32.50 as the first stop support with a break below that setting up 31.29 at the Fibonacci 38.2 level (not marked). The chart says get set for downside.

The correlation with gold, the lower sub chart, is still very high indeed to watch the gold trend.

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As you can see when you look at the 90 day correlation between the Baltic Index and the MSCI Global stock market index it is not unusual for it to negative.

The theory is that the Baltic shipping index is a barometer of economic activity and therefore a guide to growth and therefore should be reflected in stock markets which rise when growth does.

As one reader, Pankaj, pointed out the Baltic has fallen sharply recently while stocks have been rising. So does this drop foreshadow a decline in stock markets.

The simple answer is yes, it probably does. As you can see the correlation with the world’s stock markets is negative and has room to move lower but is getting to a level where the downside is limited.

You can see from the lower chart that there are lags between stock market moves and the Baltic with the Baltic tending to lead the markets. This makes perfect sense if you think about it for a moment.

So beware, the background technicals on many of these markets still point to the downside on a longer term basis. This latest dive in the Baltic can only underscore that view.

Thanks Pankaj for highlighting the Baltic’s decline.

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Chart 1 – The technical signals are to the upside in the near term at least. That is signaled by the MACD on the chart but at the same time you can see the RMI and RSI are getting towards overbought and that indicates a pullback.

Don’t forget this is a weekly chart so much longer term than the daily but it is interesting that the dollar trade weighted is getting overbought. That indicated we will see the dollar move higher in the near term, one a weekly basis, but pullback later on.

Chart 2 – As you can see we have reached a critical level at 81.3 and from a technical perspective expect some hesitation here at the very least.

The Show Stochastic is crossing above overbought so expect some pullback and that fits well with the overhead resistance line at 81.3.

So with the Chart 1 and Chart 2 factors in place expect the dollar to retrace on a trade weighted basis for a while but it does look like the much longer term uptrend, in place since the middle of last year, is in place.

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Chart 1 – We hit and broke our 1,340 target and now 1,277 is the target which is the current 200-day Moving Average. This support level will change slightly as the days go by but watch for good support here.

Good support is due also because the market is getting oversold by many measures.

Chart 2 – I’ve changed chart two to illustrate a megaphone top that has already been discussed in these pages.

It’s not a perfect example by any means but it is starting to work well along the initial lines we drew in. This pattern does mean a more meaningful correction in the coming weeks and months. Watch it closely.

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Chart 1 – For several weeks now there is not a huge change in the comment for Shanghai. The market has come off resistance pegged around the 200-day Moving Average.

The MACD signal continues to be good for the intermediate trends in this market as per the arrows on the first chart.

You should always have the 200-day on any stock or stock market chart as it is very often good support or resistance.

Chart 2 – A nice bounce off the Fibonacci Projection 61.8 pct level after some nice hesitation at the 38.2 pct level. Good support exists at that old 38.2 pct level.

The Alexander Filter got high as the 200-day was tested so the market was due to pull back from that level as it said at the time.

Chart 3 – The Wall Street correlation has collapsed just like other Asian markets so theUSmarket is having less influence and the Asian markets are correcting to their recent over-bullish performance although the world markets are beginning to increase in correlation due to their reaction to the renewed Greek crisis.

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Chart 1 – The 200-day Moving Average has broken and a fairly sharp slide has resulted.

The MACD is now signaling the downside quite sharply but the market is very oversold at current levels so it’s not unreasonable to expect support.

Chart 2 – I’ve refreshed the Fibonacci Projection Study but as you can see the 161.8 pct level has already broken. $89.7 is minor support but that is likely to be tested near term.

Chart 3 – The correlation drivers for oil are as normal. Check out this chart which shows the dollar and stock market moves are pushing oil around.

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Chart 1 – The downside we continue to expect continues to happen.

“1,624 is a critical level and a break below would set up a decline back to 1,520. Bear this level in mind” is what I said last time and our studies delivered exactly that. Lovely stuff.

Chart 2 – The bounce of the past few days is due to the market being oversold as evidenced by the RMI and Slow Stochastic.

Watch the MACD as the fast line is closing to the slow line but there is no real signal of a change in the medium term trend, which is still down.

On a day by day basis the Bollinger is lending good support and resistance so keep an eye on that as well.

Chart 3 – The Gold-Dlr correlation is high so much of the recent gold bounce is due to the dollar move.

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Chart 1 – A very nice break of the 200-day Moving Average after months of support. The significant slide post the break shows how when long term support levels break the reaction is generally significant.

But after this slide the market has got oversold as you can see from the RMI, RSI and Slow Stochastic.

A good MACD signal to the downside as you can see.

Chart 2 – We have reached and breached our targets and now the  Fibonacci Retracement 61.8 pct level has broken we are looking at 4,531.

The broad downtrend we have had since Q4 2010 is still in place.

Chart 3 – The 30-day Correlation with theUSmarket has broken down and the market is moving under its own steam.

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Chart 1 – A continued decline despite this market being oversold.

The MACD has now turned quite bearish again with the signals in this market still good for the overall downtrend since down signal cross at the end of February.

The 200-day Moving Average was support but that has well and truly broken.

Chart 2 – After all this time, still much the same on this chart. The Fibonacci Projection 100 pct level was very nice target and resistance and now the old levels have set brief support on the way down as you can see. The market is now heading for last November’s low at 17,613.

The correlation with Wall Street is moving back up again alongside the generally equity downturn that has come alongside the fresh Greek crisis. So Asian markets are recoupling again with other global markets.